Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on March 18, ice extent for the month as a whole was higher than in recent years, but still below average. As the melt season begins, researchers look at a variety of factors that may contribute to summer ice melt. While the maximum extent occurred slightly later than average, the new ice growth is very thin and likely to melt quickly.
Ice extent this March ranked ninth lowest out of the 34 years of satellite data for the month, but it was the highest March average ice extent since 2008 and one of the higher March extents in the past decade. Ice cover remained extensive in the Bering Sea, where it has been above average all winter. Ice extent was also higher than average in Baffin Bay, between Greenland and Canada, and the Sea of Okhotsk, east of Russia.
After the near-record melt last summer, second-year ice declined again, but some of the ice that had survived the previous few summers made it through another year, increasing the proportion of third- and fourth-year ice. However the oldest, thickest ice, more than four years old, continued to decline. Ice older than four years used to make up about a quarter of the winter sea ice cover, but now constitutes only 2%. First-year ice (0 to 1 years old) this year makes up 75% of the total ice cover.
It is remarkable that the Arctic has warmed about twice as fast as the rest of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades and that summer Arctic sea ice has declined by 40%! (Source http://nsidc.org/)
I am almost embarrassed to say how much time I have spent pouring over the archives of Canadian ice charts trying to identify re-occuring patterns and to try and estimate when ice will clear from specific areas. In the end while there are clear trends trying to figure the where and when is not a science one can learn but requires divination, clairvoyancy, premonition and prophecy.
Two scientific advances, however, aid in helping us make an educated decision if we are to take a certain course; ice charts and satellite images. While extremely helpful to get the general idea of the lay of an area they are far from exact as conditions change by the minute and once they are published they are usually already outdated. The Canadian ice services produce an amazing amount of precise information on ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic and we will use their charts daily when possible. However, for the new route we plan the Canadian ice services do not produce daily ice charts.
For this leg of the journey we will have to fill gaps with our own interpretations of the ice conditions, guess work, luck and a daily satellite image of the Arctic. Lacking the wonderfully informative and colourful navigational ice charts, we will fall back on satellite images which we learned off the coast of Greenland can be problematic. Clouds mean that a satellite image may provide no ice information at all other then meteorological. Last year we mistook a swath of clouds in a satellite image as ice, to the untrained eye these black and white photos from hundreds of miles up are difficult to interpret on the clearest of days.
Add to this that the navigational charts that we have are either devoid of information because no boats travel these regions or the information is dated. That sums up what we must somehow prepare ourselves for this summer.
Over the last few years the northern hemisphere has seen huge variations in winter temperatures. This is caused by a weather pattern called the Arctic oscillation. It has a negative and a positive phase shifting from year to year and month to month. The Negative phase brings low pressures to the Arctic region and the frigid Arctic winds are pushed into Europe and North America. We are particularly interested in this weather phenomenon as it also controls the ice conditions of our route. In its positive phase multiyear ice flows from Siberia towards Greenland and North America and is pushed out of the Arctic through the Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard. This means less ice in the arctic and thinner summer ice but it’s also means that multiyear ice is pushed into the narrow channels and straights of the Canadian Arctic and might block our route. In June the annual Sea Ice Outlook Report is released by the NOAA and we are excited to see what we can expect. The Arctic oscillation is just one of a large number of known and unknown factors that control the ice extent and in the end no man or computer can predict how the ice will behave from year to year.
I found this beautiful NASA animation that shows the movements of the ice during 2010 which had the third lowest ice extent ever recorded. At 0:30 into the video you can see how the Ice is retracting from the Northwest Passage during a short period of time and that our northern passage never fully opens up.
Jeckells sailmakers have been manufacturing sails for over 180 years! This summer their sails will power us through the Arctic. Last summer, during a strong gale off the coast of Greenland we found that even with the mainsail reduced to a third reef we were overpowered and had a hard time controlling the boat. In oder to solve this Jeckells has provided us with a set of storm sails for our expedition. We are excited about this partnership and to see how Belzebub will preform with her new sails. Click on the logo to learn more about Jeckells and their sails.
I am almost embarrassed to say how much time I have spent pouring over the archives of Canadian ice charts trying to identify re-occuring patterns and to try and estimate when ice will clear from specific areas. In the end while there are clear trends trying to figure the where and when is not a science one can learn but requires divination, clairvoyancy, premonition and prophecy.
Two scientific advances, however, aid in helping us make an educated decision if we are to take a certain course; ice charts and satellite images. While extremely helpful to get the general idea of the lay of an area they are far from exact as conditions change by the minute and once they are published they are usually already outdated. The Canadian ice services produce an amazing amount of precise information on ice conditions in the Canadian Arctic and we will use their charts daily when possible. However, for the new route we plan the Canadian ice services do not produce daily ice charts.
